• What Are The Odds Of Winning A Blackjack Hand
• Blackjack House Odds

If you want to be successful at blackjack then it is incredibly important to understand odds and probabilities in the game. You need to understand your odds of busting or winning in any situation, depending on the hand you are dealt.

A natural blackjack is only 4.8%, which essentially is an ace dealt with a ten card straight off the initial deal. Normally the odds are 3 to 2 and you would win $3 for every $2 wagered. It's a small percentage but it's the most desirable hand to get. The lowest hand you can get is two points (two aces). Most casinos expect each blackjack table to have a hold of about 20%—that is, they expect to be able to keep about 20% of the wagers made. Correspondingly, the average player can expect to lose about 20% of his stake over the course of every session. The “core odds” reduce the house’s advantage to 10.99%.

First things first-understand your odds of busting in any situation if you hit. The following chart shows your odds of busting depending on the hand you are dealt. Keep in mind that you cannot bust on any hand valued at 11 or under. For hands 12 and over, here are your odds:

As you can see, the higher your hand's value is the more likely it is that you will bust. Therefore, it is advisable never to hit on a hand of 17 or higher, unless you hold a soft 17 (an Ace and a 6) in which case you should hit. On the other hand, you should always stand on soft 18 through 21 and always hit on any soft hand worth less than 17.
If you hold a hand with a value of 12 through 16 then you should stand when the dealer's upcard is 2 through 6, as he is likely to bust. However, if the dealer holds 7 or higher then hit. If the dealer doesn't bust then you definitely can't win with a hand under 17.

With a basic understanding of blackjack odds you will see that, based on your bust-out odds, these are the best moves in each of these situations. Now get ready to win!

Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds

What Are The Odds Of Winning A Blackjack Hand

To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.

Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack

In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.

By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.

Probability of Busting on a Hit

It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:

Two-Card Count Frequencies

This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.

Dealer Final Hand Probabilities

This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.

Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card

The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.

Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck

When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.

Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.

See also:

Blackjack House Odds